Yunda shares (002120) first coverage report: the pattern tends to be stable and strong Hengqiang

Yunda shares (002120) first coverage report: the pattern tends to be stable and strong Hengqiang
Leading domestic express delivery company.Yunda was established in 1青岛夜网999 and is one of the leading companies in the domestic express delivery industry.The e-commerce express delivery service was officially opened in 2007, and restructuring was completed in 2017, and Yunda was listed on the backdoor.Express shipments continued to grow at a rapid rate, from 2016 to 32.1.4 billion pieces increased to 69 in 2018.8.5 billion pieces, with a compound growth rate of 47.42%, the market share ranks second in the industry.2018 revenue was 138.56 ppm, an increase of 38 in ten years.76%; net profit attributable to mother 26.98 ppm, a 69-year increase of 69.76%. Internet penetration has increased, and e-commerce development has driven high growth in the industry.By 2018, the penetration rate of Internet in rural and low-tier cities will continue, and the expansion rate will continue to drive the development of the e-commerce market.The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for the proportion of total retail sales of consumer goods from October 2015.77% increased to 19 in the first half of 2019.55%, continued high growth in online retail sales has further driven the growth in demand for express delivery.The State Post Bureau estimates that 60 billion express delivery services will be completed in 2019, an annual growth rate of 20%; business revenue will be US $ 715 billion, an annual increase of 19%, and the rapid development of e-commerce, such as Pinduoduo, will be the main driving force. Leading courier companies have obvious first-mover advantages and restructure the industry.Second-tier courier companies are gradually clearing up. We believe that due to the existence of scale effects, the upper limit of scale has not yet been reached. Leading courier companies have obvious first-mover advantages and good service quality to effectively reduce the rate. It is more difficult for catch-up courier companies to catch up.The price war has intensified industry consolidation, and the front-line express delivery framework has basically integrated. Leading express delivery companies have the advantage of capital and are not afraid. Transit cost control is strong and the network is stable.Yunda’s transfer operation cost is the lowest in the reach department, reaching 0 for a single ticket.38 yuan, mainly because 1) the single transfer center has a large processing capacity, reaching 1 in 18 years.2.7 billion pieces, the scale effect is prominent.2) Since 2015, the continuous expansion of automation equipment has brought improvement in sorting efficiency.Compared with Zhongtong, there is a lot of room for improvement in transportation. In the future, the proportion of drop trailers on the main line will be increased, and routing will be optimized.Yunda’s service network is stable, with the lowest receivables, and the single-account receivables are 0.08 yuan, the franchisee has strong financial strength. Leading service quality and strong bargaining power.Major e-commerce customers need to improve the shopping experience and require courier companies to provide higher quality services, which are expensive.1-0.2 yuan is acceptable, we believe that the quality of courier service is a key competitiveness in addition to cost factors.Since Yun Dada invested in automation equipment early, it can reduce labor, coupled with a compact overall, clean, less lost, etc., and high customer satisfaction.The monthly effective therapy was implanted in 2018.77, second only to SF Express; second to SF Express and Post EMS in terms of the total time limit, Yunda’s single ticket revenue is high and its bargaining power is strong. Investment strategy: We forecast the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 29.2.9 billion, 36.500 million, 44.61 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.5%, 24.6%, 22.2%.Considering that the market outlook of the industry is stabilizing, Yunda is the leader in the industry and gives a certain estimated premium. We give the company a target price of 41 yuan in 2020, corresponding to a 25x valuation, and a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: E-commerce growth is lower than expected risk, price war exceeds expected risk, and labor cost rises sharply.