Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Increase in the proportion of direct sales drives up the average price of Moutai wine to achieve sustainable and rapid growth

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Increase in the proportion of direct sales drives up the average price of Moutai wine to achieve sustainable and rapid growth
The increase of direct sales channels increased the average price of Moutai, and the revenue performance of 19Q3 maintained a steady growth. The company announced total revenue of 635 in the first three quarters of 19th.09 million yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.53%; net profit attributable to mother 304.55 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.13%.Total revenue in 2019Q3 was 223.36 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.28%; net profit attributable to mother is 105.40,000 yuan, an increase of 17 years.11%.We estimate that the sales volume of Moutai at the end of the 19Q3 report will be flat or increase by a small amount. The increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct sales, which drives up the average price of Moutai.19Q3 advance receipt 112.55 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.79%.In theory, the company has banned dozens of dealers, and if the payment is made at a normal pace, the advance payment is appropriately reduced.However, due to strong downstream demand and the approval price continued to run at a high level, in order to curb the excessive increase in approval prices at the end of the third quarter, the company requested large merchants to pay part of the payment next year in advance.Net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters of 19 was 273.1.5 billion, down 3 every year.21%, which is mainly due to the obvious decline in the growth of financial business activities, which has nothing to do with the main business.Performance growth was faster than revenue. Due to the decline in expense ratios and business taxes and surcharges, the sales expense ratio in the first three quarters decreased by 1%.06pct, the business tax and the proportion of additional revenue decreased by 1.78pct to 12.51%. The increase in the proportion of direct sales guarantees the achievement of long-term business goals. Next year, it is expected that the release of production capacity will increase steadily. It is said that the annual report for 18 years, the revenue target for 19 years will be about 14%, and the sales volume of Moutai will be 3.Around 18, we believe that the company has achieved its goal by optimizing the channel structure, and this year’s revenue growth will increase by about 15%. According to the 16-year annual report, the output of Maotai Liquor-Based Liquor in 2016 reached 39,313 tons, an increase of 22% per year. Therefore, we expect to gradually release the company’s production capacity 厦门夜网 next year.At present, the approval price of Moutai in many places is maintained at 2100-2300 yuan, and the channel profit even exceeds the company’s profit, which does not rule out the possibility of raising the factory price next year. Earnings forecast We expect the company’s revenues to be 898 in 19-21.27/1062.22/1260.73 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.36% / 18.25% / 18.69%, net profit attributable to mothers was 429.80/522.58/627.14 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.09% / 21.58% / 20.01%, EPS is 34.21/41.60/49.92 yuan / share, corresponding to PE at 35/29/24 times the latest closing price.The company’s brand moat is high, and the profit stability in the next 3 years is strong. We give 34 times PE in 2020 with a reasonable value of 1414 yuan, and maintain a buy rating. Risk reminder: Macroeconomic growth rate, consumption upgrade exceeds expectations, food safety risks.